Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dc09a3acad92bccd69c97960ec39b22f4fd560b28137a72028495d814b5520c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee2d…6968backed No | 63c | 1,024$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.95 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 40c | 476$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.35 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 60c | 470.99$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.4 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 35c | 313.38$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.68 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 38c | 299.63$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.09 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 291.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 36c | 182.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 118.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 83.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 61c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 39c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 67.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 36c | 62.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 58.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 42c | 55.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 54.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 41c | 52.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 40c | 49.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 39.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 37.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 35.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 34.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 61c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 40c | 25.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 60c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 61c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.