Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x806f64fc3382c67c5dfe941e730d7fe0dc5477c9a21c104a12839046c8ed17db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 609.02$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.39 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 59c | 524.05$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.73 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 42c | 475.3$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.9 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 33c | 347.5$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…ef6bbacked No | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 73c | 274.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 79c | 217.61$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 68c | 206.9$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 203.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 128$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 112.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 28c | 107$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 22c | 60.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 24c | 59.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 59.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 31c | 58.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 51.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 49.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 43.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 28c | 38.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 27c | 37.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 61c | 35.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 35.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 34.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 72c | 33.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 39c | 32.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 31.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 69c | 27.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…9ec2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 24.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 73c | 24.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 13.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.