Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dcd64fd1ec3c8657fd87436b410b41a52f8be58d2d631fdeb70bc7f4dbb7522
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 62c | 702.69$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.89 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 368.59$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 67c | 327.53$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 74c | 288.6$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 7c | 264.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 33c | 195.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 48c | 189.26$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.77 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 31c | 178.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 49c | 152.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.83 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 39c | 131$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…d04ebacked No | 32c | 123.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 120.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 120.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 50c | 119.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 114.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…7fc8backed No | 29c | 114$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +201.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 58c | 109$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 65c | 101$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 67c | 100.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 33c | 99.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 55c | 90.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 33c | 87.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 42c | 84.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 83.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 63c | 75.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 66.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…1586backed Yes | 55c | 63.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 57c | 62.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 58.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 56.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 58c | 54.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 65c | 52.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 55c | 51.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 49.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 43c | 46.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6370…f483backed Yes | 33c | 46.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 33c | 41.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 37c | 39.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…89b7backed Yes | 77c | 38.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 72c | 38.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 65c | 31.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 58c | 27.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 38c | 27.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 45c | 26.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f8…a683backed Yes | 66c | 24.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…48a4backed No | 69c | 22.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 67c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 69c | 14.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 83°F or below on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.