Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-02-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9def278cbfdc75483ac35579507306551c5de61ae40a7e84b13d0be040167c79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 38c | 6,000$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 17c | 2,110$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.08 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 62c | 1,980$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.48 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 1,837$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.08 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 792.84$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.97 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…b5c3backed No | 62c | 660$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 38c | 647.43$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.02 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 38c | 599.99$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9425…f025backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 62c | 271.98$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 78c | 226.58$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 117 | 25.6%30 W · 87 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…348dbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 53cpaid | -64%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Yes | 12c | 88.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…c00cbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 39c | 83.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 39c | 69.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 16c | 62.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 38c | 60.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed No | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 18c | 56.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 204 | 54.4%111 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 38c | 45.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd258…9dfdbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…0139backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac8…787dbacked Yes | 39c | 35.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…a368backed Yes | 39c | 32.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a6…9144backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1d…7e54backed No | 62c | 32.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed No | 67c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbb…3b60backed No | 62c | 31.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…16fbbacked Yes | 39c | 28.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad54…6e85backed No | 72c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-02-08?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre vs. Paris FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Paris FC win on 2026-02-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.