NHL · resolved market
World Championships: Denmark vs. Italy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e020f353c57f1323e14c5d51423df9267282591e9890db0b6284e1c9e76aef4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Denmarkof Denmark, Italy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Italy | 25c | 1,648$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.89 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48cb…1169backed Denmark | 74c | 672.98$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c0…17abbacked Denmark | 77c | 537.99$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…a3bebacked Denmark | 75c | 533.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed Italy | 21c | 524.74$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Denmark | 75c | 465.4$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.35 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…38e5backed Denmark | 77c | 452.24$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Italy | 23c | 340.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Italy | 23c | 332.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Italy | 24c | 259.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Denmark | 74c | 247.13$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2e…56cbbacked Denmark | 76c | 246.62$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Italy | 24c | 244.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Italy | 12c | 230.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Italy | 6c | 174$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Italy | 23c | 169.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…9f92backed Denmark | 73c | 165.73$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Italy | 9c | 141.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…968cbacked Denmark | 75c | 132.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b2…40cabacked Italy | 39c | 131.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Italy | 28c | 107.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 59.1%143 W · 99 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Italy | 30c | 105.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…ca41backed Italy | 17c | 77.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Denmark | 76c | 73.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x812c…b81fbacked Denmark | 76c | 71.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…22cbbacked Denmark | 70c | 55.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…6ca6backed Italy | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Denmark | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Italy | 27c | 47.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8917…be6fbacked Denmark | 76c | 38.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Italy | 40c | 30.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…bfa7backed Denmark | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Denmark | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…377bbacked Denmark | 76c | 21.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…dc91backed Denmark | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f6…d815backed Denmark | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b9…5942backed Denmark | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Denmark | 75c | 18.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 235 | 59.1%139 W · 96 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Denmark | 65c | 18.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.