Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e4540a789e8bdcadc357b9394063ee8a44031918428b179e9b1e31556024b2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 10c | 1,199$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.94 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 542.85$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 22c | 432.16$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.18 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 5c | 237.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 75c | 199.41$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.29 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 11c | 144.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 133.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 18c | 126.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.94 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 76c | 118.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 116.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 11c | 114.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 114$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 16c | 112.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 19c | 103.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 96.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 70c | 95.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 78c | 89.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 78c | 89.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 39c | 88.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 19c | 84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 26c | 74.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 28c | 73.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 80c | 69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 21c | 48.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed No | 68c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 39c | 45.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 40c | 41.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 77c | 37.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 71c | 34.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked No | 77c | 31.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…a2d5backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 55c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…1706backed Yes | 79c | 25.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…96c2backed Yes | 76c | 23.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52a…58b6backed Yes | 70c | 23.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 71c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 74c | 18.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.