Champions League · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e4bf91be60022e5f27e24b942fefd34f01e1691ba95b5f9a5b24319dfd496a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 2,368$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.64 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Under | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 33c | 999.98$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.99 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 67c | 650$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.35 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Over | 33c | 606.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…3957backed Over | 66c | 529.39$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 36c | 499.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.99 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 37c | 455.64$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.32 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 37c | 444$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.72 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 67c | 357.05$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.19 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…c66cbacked Over | 33c | 303$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 36c | 296.78$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.09 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 244.18$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.65 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed Under | 37c | 199.94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Over | 55c | 161.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…a51cbacked Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 63c | 101.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…30a0backed Under | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…61cdbacked Under | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 67c | 92.54$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…253cbacked Over | 67c | 88.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 64c | 88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…0cd1backed Over | 66c | 68.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 31c | 62.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Over | 66c | 60.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…3232backed Over | 65c | 41.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…1bfcbacked Under | 71c | 22.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd560…ee17backed Over | 48c | 20.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3501…0591backed Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcec0…82ddbacked Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 64c | 17.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Under | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 2.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.