Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 16 above $260?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e4d189e946cd9e12973ca5a9912d73e601fca3d0331e6c8c55d5ab15311d469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 69c | 3,567$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.16 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 20c | 1,767$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.27 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 72c | 547.52$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.84 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 39c | 404$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.76 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…18c7backed No | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed No | 51c | 393.85$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 16c | 357.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 37c | 240$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed No | 57c | 198.95$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…a53ebacked No | 17c | 178$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked No | 38c | 170$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 35c | 104$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 53c | 80.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 75c | 73.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 22c | 71.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 25c | 68.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 20c | 65.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed No | 53c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.7wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 16 above $260?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 16 above $245?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 16 above $250?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 16 above $255?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 16 above $265?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 16 above $270?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 16 above $275?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 16 above $280?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 16 above $290?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.