TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,637
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,604

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,637 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Over13c2,648$333 inLost-$333.182,99042.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L+9.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over14c2,324$323 inLost-$323.481,60438.9%624 W · 980 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over12c2,162$264 inLost-$264.172,47333.9%839 W · 1,634 L-95.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over20c1,210$238 inLost-$238.52,33341.7%972 W · 1,361 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over12c1,079$134 inLost-$134.382,16737.6%815 W · 1,352 L+5.7wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c5…46c3backed Over19c619.85$120 inLost-$1205030%15 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over17c611.05$102 inLost-$101.713,72647%1,750 W · 1,976 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under77c562.26$431 inWon+$130.7755845%251 W · 307 L+2.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…965abacked Over8c332.43$26 inLost-$25.698316.9%14 W · 69 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under80c324.34$259 inWon+$64.8732436.4%118 W · 206 L-20.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Over20c304.05$61 inLost-$60.8114931.5%47 W · 102 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over22c303.15$66 inLost-$65.781,03346.1%476 W · 557 L-3.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Over18c281.76$50 inLost-$50.465549.8%326 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under76c199.99$152 inWon+$486556.9%37 W · 28 L+7.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+33.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under78c175.33$137 inWon+$38.571154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Over14c169.69$24 inLost-$24.2731856%178 W · 140 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over17c162.55$28 inLost-$28.344156%247 W · 194 L+22.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Over18c119.59$22 inLost-$21.5350154.7%274 W · 227 L+20.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Over22c115.34$25 inLost-$25.2929337.9%111 W · 182 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.