TailMyPicks
Market

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: Team to Advance

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Tobyl FKof Tobyl FK, FK Panevėžys
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,476
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,262

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,476 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x64e9…eb4cbacked FK Panevėžys12c2,158$263 inLost-$262.882321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Tobyl FK71c906.81$643 inWon+$263.8463957.1%365 W · 274 L+35.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x223a…f30ebacked FK Panevėžys31c474.22$147 inLost-$147.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed FK Panevėžys25c328.91$81 inLost-$81.1579732.2%257 W · 540 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked FK Panevėžys22c204.99$45 inLost-$44.64429.5%13 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-50.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb29…947abacked FK Panevėžys11c184.36$20 inLost-$20.287440.5%30 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Tobyl FK76c158.84$120 inWon+$38.615350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f0…e276backed FK Panevėžys13c156.83$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9212…4040backed FK Panevėžys20c155.64$31 inLost-$30.822763%17 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb98e…8823backed FK Panevėžys39c150$58 inLost-$58.52524%6 W · 19 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-49.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FK Panevėžys25c122.2$31 inLost-$30.878544.8%352 W · 433 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44c…28c5backed FK Panevėžys12c100$12 inLost-$1230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63ee…027ebacked FK Panevėžys15c86.13$13 inLost-$12.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67c0…00d7backed FK Panevėžys30c82.53$24 inLost-$24.36837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72bd…45adbacked Tobyl FK78c70.92$55 inWon+$15.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Tobyl FK65c50.57$33 inWon+$17.832657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce8b…738abacked Tobyl FK64c50$32 inWon+$18475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+42.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Tobyl FK77c49.38$38 inWon+$11.365747.4%27 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2035…d536backed FK Panevėžys45c31.26$14 inLost-$14.0730%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb323…e253backed Tobyl FK76c29.85$23 inWon+$7.161258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Tobyl FK80c21.8$17 inWon+$4.3617941.9%75 W · 104 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Tobyl FK55c21.59$12 inWon+$9.724551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4155…fa41backed Tobyl FK66c20.66$14 inWon+$7.027867.9%53 W · 25 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1345…6e1cbacked Tobyl FK73c17.81$13 inWon+$4.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe0…cc67backed Tobyl FK77c15$12 inWon+$3.452646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.