Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Tobyl FK (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5369b6d6a8a887a5c6e3d233caf379e33bdbf76b7af406e9fe345e3ef4f3273
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FK Panevėžysof Tobyl FK, FK Panevėžys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc1…bdd8backed Tobyl FK | 54c | 3,675$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FK Panevėžys | 65c | 3,533$2,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.68 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tobyl FK | 27c | 3,411$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.46 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Tobyl FK | 42c | 2,408$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.71 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4939…9adebacked FK Panevėžys | 49c | 2,266$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed FK Panevėžys | 46c | 1,852$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.21 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FK Panevėžys | 61c | 1,280$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.58 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked FK Panevėžys | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Tobyl FK | 52c | 960.99$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.72 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed FK Panevėžys | 48c | 948.08$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Tobyl FK | 52c | 800$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Tobyl FK | 51c | 642.71$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.78 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed FK Panevėžys | 47c | 621.79$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.55 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tobyl FK | 41c | 478.64$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.14 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked FK Panevėžys | 46c | 478.5$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.39 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Tobyl FK | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed FK Panevėžys | 53c | 372.02$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.02 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Tobyl FK | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.33 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Tobyl FK | 52c | 249.96$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.11 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed FK Panevėžys | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed FK Panevėžys | 48c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed FK Panevėžys | 49c | 165.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Tobyl FK | 34c | 148.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x834f…f38ebacked Tobyl FK | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed FK Panevėžys | 47c | 119.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked FK Panevėžys | 47c | 115.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FK Panevėžys | 45c | 110.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…511dbacked FK Panevėžys | 53c | 101.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed FK Panevėžys | 64c | 100.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed FK Panevėžys | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe4…70c1backed FK Panevėžys | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked FK Panevėžys | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…7f05backed Tobyl FK | 52c | 99.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Tobyl FK | 13c | 92.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed FK Panevėžys | 62c | 89.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed FK Panevėžys | 47c | 77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked FK Panevėžys | 54c | 76.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked FK Panevėžys | 75c | 76.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed FK Panevėžys | 48c | 66.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…dfcbbacked Tobyl FK | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Tobyl FK | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c0…00d7backed Tobyl FK | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Tobyl FK | 41c | 37.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…25fbbacked FK Panevėžys | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed Tobyl FK | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e82…7ab7backed FK Panevėžys | 55c | 27.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Tobyl FK | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Tobyl FK | 53c | 20.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FK Panevėžys | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…85a6backed FK Panevėžys | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tobyl FK (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tobyl FK (-2.5)FK Panevėžys won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: FK Panevėžys 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: FK Panevėžys O/U 0.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: FK Panevėžys O/U 1.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: O/U 0.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: O/U 2.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: O/U 3.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: Team to AdvanceTobyl FK won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: Tobyl FK 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: Tobyl FK O/U 1.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.