Europa Conference League · resolved market
Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e03525ed4aae0a5075d7abd937f2766964eacafab1abd3a12d1cf7eebf9880f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 7,004$2,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,442.44 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 4,303$3,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.03 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 23c | 3,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.97 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 75c | 2,090$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.34 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 22c | 2,061$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.05 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 73c | 1,089$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.18 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 906.64$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.06 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 71c | 904.1$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.25 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 73c | 869.2$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.97 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 72c | 823.34$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.45 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 36c | 797.41$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.05 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 57c | 780.68$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.55 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Under | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 64c | 768.07$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 23c | 733.12$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.53 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 35c | 599.96$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed9f…debabacked Under | 79c | 575$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 549.56$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.45 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 50c | 540.16$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.08 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Under | 69c | 525.68$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.96 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 36c | 449$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.64 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Under | 54c | 288.89$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.89 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 48c | 262.83$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 68c | 247.49$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 35c | 239.19$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 36c | 235.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 72c | 206.75$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 73c | 186.91$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 57c | 176.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 35c | 169.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…3b69backed Over | 32c | 160.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked Under | 65c | 153.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…a647backed Under | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Under | 74c | 135.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 63c | 116.06$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 73c | 113$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 35c | 107.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 75c | 102.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 27c | 99.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 64c | 74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…46c3backed Over | 36c | 60.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa560…767dbacked Under | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Under | 65c | 59.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 65c | 59.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Under | 69c | 59.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 68c | 46.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…209dbacked Under | 72c | 44.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 79c | 37.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed6c…4eb1backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653b…685ebacked Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…7520backed Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 54c | 30.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 50c | 23.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 73c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb994…d4b7backed Under | 50c | 22.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Tobyl FK (-1.5)FK Panevėžys won
- Spread: Tobyl FK (-2.5)FK Panevėžys won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: FK Panevėžys 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: FK Panevėžys O/U 0.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: FK Panevėžys O/U 1.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: O/U 0.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: O/U 2.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: Team to AdvanceTobyl FK won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: Tobyl FK 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys: Tobyl FK O/U 1.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.