Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e7e40ea1df1f5c84d17d911b63bbfc1b8ed1451b1e4ccf531d4ac0beb0d66bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 47c | 13,910$6,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,473.45 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 51c | 12,671$6,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,208.63 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed No | 66c | 4,408$2,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,894.18 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 34c | 3,175$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,085.84 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Yes | 60c | 2,962$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 44c | 1,100$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.99 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Yes | 60c | 408.21$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.24 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Yes | 56c | 347.71$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 37c | 301.75$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 49c | 268.69$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.81 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 42c | 263.9$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…d5afbacked Yes | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…ee20backed Yes | 58c | 252.1$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.88 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…32bcbacked Yes | 72c | 243.7$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked No | 10c | 241.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +128%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373b…1107backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes | 50c | 193.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…2277backed Yes | 69c | 170.68$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…c230backed No | 10c | 152.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed No | 40c | 151.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 57c | 146.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6167…a6cabacked Yes | 76c | 129.58$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 42c | 102.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 42c | 100.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb805…bedfbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x806a…62d7backed Yes | 57c | 94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 46c | 86.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked Yes | 52c | 48.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 75c | 48.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed12…246abacked No | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…c51bbacked Yes | 57c | 36.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked No | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf10…0381backed Yes | 62c | 34.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 40c | 31.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3113backed Yes | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4d…0486backed Yes | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…a04bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.