Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda690883bb983fdc6e04fa19daa0ec28bdf8f0324033da8160e4b06e0e8b2324
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40d5…79a5backed Over | 33c | 5,428$1,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 30c | 4,664$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.19 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 3,301$2,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.28 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 2,751$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.5 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Over | 4c | 2,238$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 36c | 1,700$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 70c | 1,100$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 70c | 1,057$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.59 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 21c | 979.82$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.76 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Under | 54c | 823.62$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 13c | 780.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked Under | 53c | 680.38$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.83 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 70c | 569.9$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.97 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 37c | 499.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over | 31c | 489.84$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 68c | 479.52$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.03 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 13c | 434.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Under | 59c | 413.31$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Over | 27c | 410.81$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.92 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 69c | 389.2$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.72 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 69c | 383$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.33 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 37c | 291.48$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.85 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 7c | 290.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 73c | 196.76$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 17c | 159.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 19c | 151.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 70c | 141.69$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…d727backed Under | 70c | 126.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 29c | 97.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 69c | 91.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 33c | 73.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Under | 68c | 68.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 71c | 67.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…5f62backed Under | 70c | 65.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 70c | 64.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 58c | 64.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 70c | 63.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 70c | 63.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 20c | 54.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 32c | 51.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 70c | 33.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…01fdbacked Under | 65c | 29.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 70c | 29.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 68c | 27.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 71c | 26.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 76c | 23.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 71c | 22.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 71c | 22.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 70c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 72c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Under | 77c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 76c | 16.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.