Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e91e50f8ca0f3b12ee00a0064da0a8e429403a644731b6bf6e221be83d5121e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 72c | 10,208$7,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,831.53 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,686$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.96 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 22c | 2,993$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.01 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f9…c741backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 1,687$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.28 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed No | 74c | 1,558$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.16 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,172$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb6…50fcbacked No | 63c | 999.98$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 27c | 835.11$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.48 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 25c | 832.49$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 74c | 803.16$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.82 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…cd41backed No | 66c | 758$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.72 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 75c | 750.07$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.96 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 26c | 750$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 15c | 668.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0eaabacked Yes | 15c | 668.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 34c | 609$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.06 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed No | 74c | 599.95$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f88…cd62backed Yes | 26c | 576.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 3c | 541.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 26c | 384.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 75c | 253.33$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 26c | 246.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Yes | 25c | 220$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…e44ebacked Yes | 34c | 205.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Yes | 11c | 198.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 26c | 154.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 154.43$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 66c | 142.36$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Yes | 29c | 132.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 26c | 112.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Yes | 28c | 100.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…6b66backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 69c | 80.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 17c | 79.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6b…3962backed Yes | 26c | 71.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 74c | 60.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…96f0backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61d…caddbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb91…3294backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 25c | 42.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 80c | 34.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 74c | 33.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…da09backed Yes | 35c | 32.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed No | 72c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked No | 71c | 17.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 74c | 15.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?this page
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-10?Yes won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.