Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9eb3aea45b315ed7f16303cbea32e98d01866b9ed56bc226f0e29ad1c0613ba5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 581.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 9c | 477.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 12c | 338.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 321.93$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 16c | 316.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 8c | 295$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 20c | 286.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…ec40backed Yes | 33c | 286.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 35c | 180.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 176.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 139.06$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 115.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 32c | 102$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…5099backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08e8…c62ebacked Yes | 22c | 91.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 87.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 18c | 83.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…54adbacked Yes | 32c | 54.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 43.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…4af7backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 67c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 66c | 37.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 35c | 37.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 34.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 38c | 31.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 31.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 40c | 29.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 64c | 26.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 64c | 19.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed No | 70c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 71c | 18.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 64c | 16.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 16.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.