Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f8e07470585d5822d1ecb5422ef4169fcfd4c71dca139cdda94d414cb9c1e22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 628.89$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 5c | 499.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 489.37$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 21c | 285.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.72 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 257.88$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 37c | 252.51$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.09 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 238$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.18 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 43c | 205.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 77c | 203$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 57c | 190.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…e684backed Yes | 46c | 186.07$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 183.26$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.81 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 40c | 180.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.29 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 166.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 46c | 159.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.05 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…5099backed Yes | 64c | 158.92$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 156.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed Yes | 79c | 147.12$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe949…efccbacked Yes | 73c | 143.2$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 68c | 133.84$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked No | 39c | 133.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 70c | 131.74$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 71c | 131.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 124.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 123.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 119.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 45c | 117.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 74c | 112$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…d7cdbacked Yes | 70c | 100.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 28c | 99.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…ec40backed Yes | 34c | 98.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 91.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 71c | 90.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 58c | 87.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 59c | 84.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 58c | 81.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 78.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 74.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 37c | 72.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 34c | 69.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 58c | 68.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 49c | 65.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 67c | 64.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Yes | 45c | 64.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 58c | 59.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 58c | 59.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 61c | 57.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 51c | 57.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 54.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 55c | 54.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 53c | 53.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 51.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 50.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 27c | 49.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 44c | 48.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 67c | 48.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 59c | 46.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 67c | 46.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 45c | 44.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 42.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 41.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 71c | 39.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 38c | 39.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 51c | 39.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 68c | 38.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 35c | 38.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 65c | 36.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 62c | 36.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 79c | 35.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 57c | 35.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 51c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 62c | 34.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 32.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 38c | 32.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 44c | 31.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 46c | 31.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 41c | 30.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 77c | 30.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 30.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 63c | 29.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 62c | 29.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…5e06backed Yes | 51c | 29.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 80c | 27.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 72c | 27.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 67c | 26.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 48c | 26.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked Yes | 48c | 25.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 48c | 24.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.