Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde7add70aab024230274fc9d489ab2fd89d914f050dfbd72841f8e06be4f07f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 679.13$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 21c | 381.44$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 354.78$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 310.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 79c | 306.62$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 20c | 285.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 75c | 256.87$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 18c | 201.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed No | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 31c | 191$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 15c | 189.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 19c | 160.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7824…e3e9backed Yes | 34c | 156.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 13c | 150.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 143$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 110.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 30c | 108.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 30c | 105.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 70c | 92.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 57c | 87.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 87.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 73.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 59c | 71.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 70.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 74c | 67.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 63.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 63.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 59.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 42c | 59.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 37c | 53.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 31c | 49.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 44.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 28c | 42.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 38c | 42.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd662…aeb5backed Yes | 41c | 37.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 59c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d23…cd8fbacked Yes | 36c | 31.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 69c | 30.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 28.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 67c | 25.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 69c | 25.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 23.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 70c | 22.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 76c | 20.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 59c | 17.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 69c | 17.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 75c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.