Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ee47e0a9057beb8e8115978a8a961e64c34e768e2e9f8ef3da59f3538b3ab43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Minaur | 10c | 18,033$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.99 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bb…e7a1backed Minaur | 12c | 1,823$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.7 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Minaur | 13c | 1,422$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.2 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Minaur | 21c | 1,280$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.75 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Minaur | 20c | 1,187$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Minaur | 13c | 1,072$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.77 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Minaur | 29c | 1,040$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.6 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Minaur | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Minaur | 13c | 985.74$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.74 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Minaur | 12c | 788.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…3f5fbacked Minaur | 7c | 680$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Minaur | 28c | 679.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.25 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Minaur | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9a…099fbacked Minaur | 9c | 528.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Sinner | 75c | 353.72$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Sinner | 71c | 340.96$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Minaur | 13c | 156.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Minaur | 14c | 143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Sinner | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Minaur | 22c | 119$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Minaur | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.