Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9efa5f1d3e0d844de3438288a1d484fa8d3192f7a9e20eee3fc0f15a75a18f9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 994.52$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 47c | 417.31$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.34 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 371.26$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 69c | 345.62$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.87 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 47c | 269.95$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 60c | 244.06$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 198.27$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 35c | 182.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.89 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 59c | 167.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed Yes | 79c | 131.72$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 45c | 118.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 117.48$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 36c | 116$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 47c | 115.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 110.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 12c | 107$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 45c | 96.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 40c | 87.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 75c | 86.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 64c | 81.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 46c | 81.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 75c | 80.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 79.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 72.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 18c | 65.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 79c | 63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 59.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…667abacked No | 47c | 57.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 45c | 52.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 48c | 51.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…1096backed No | 53c | 48.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 38c | 46.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 65c | 46.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 60c | 44.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 49c | 43.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 47c | 40.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 40c | 40.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 30c | 39.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 39c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 37.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 37.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…c30abacked No | 60c | 36.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 34.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 34.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 55c | 30.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 55c | 29.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 46c | 28.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 51c | 27.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 59c | 26.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 56c | 22.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…16c5backed No | 54c | 21.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…97d1backed Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…9177backed Yes | 60c | 19.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.