Lol · resolved market
LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f0cdfb390dd08d5cd18e1aac36cf1fac9a8be51c42be72a8552d83a93fad22d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LYONof LYON, Shopify Rebellion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed Shopify Rebellion | 21c | 3,811$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.38 | 348 | 37.4%130 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked Shopify Rebellion | 1c | 2,894$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1,295 | 45.1%584 W · 711 L | +49.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Shopify Rebellion | 9c | 2,440$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Shopify Rebellion | 20c | 2,001$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.28 | 1,731 | 44.2%765 W · 966 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Shopify Rebellion | 14c | 1,322$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.19 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Shopify Rebellion | 15c | 1,209$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.16 | 756 | 30%227 W · 529 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Shopify Rebellion | 15c | 1,044$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.58 | 950 | 41.6%395 W · 555 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Shopify Rebellion | 11c | 896.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Shopify Rebellion | 15c | 833.53$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.69 | 761 | 42%320 W · 441 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Shopify Rebellion | 11c | 801.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed LYON | 79c | 789.92$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.88 | 1,151 | 56%644 W · 507 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Shopify Rebellion | 17c | 788.58$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.06 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed LYON | 79c | 724.75$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.2 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked LYON | 79c | 646.75$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.82 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | -13.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed LYON | 79c | 642.35$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.32 | 962 | 50.1%482 W · 480 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…38eabacked Shopify Rebellion | 5c | 585.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…64ccbacked Shopify Rebellion | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 174 | 31%54 W · 120 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked LYON | 78c | 493.38$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.84 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Shopify Rebellion | 6c | 491.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…2560backed LYON | 79c | 474.5$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 376 | 60.9%229 W · 147 L | -28.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked LYON | 79c | 469.99$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.96 | 2,341 | 40.3%943 W · 1,398 L | -61.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed LYON | 78c | 449.98$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Shopify Rebellion | 11c | 315.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 993 | 38.6%383 W · 610 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…b76fbacked Shopify Rebellion | 22c | 271.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 108 | 31.5%34 W · 74 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Shopify Rebellion | 14c | 257.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 1,058 | 23.5%249 W · 809 L | -75.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…f362backed Shopify Rebellion | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…d430backed LYON | 79c | 249.97$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 326 | 53.4%174 W · 152 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…b9acbacked LYON | 79c | 246.59$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 381 | 57.5%219 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…a754backed Shopify Rebellion | 22c | 226.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed LYON | 78c | 224.12$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked LYON | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 636 | 46.9%298 W · 338 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b2bdbacked LYON | 79c | 197.48$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 205 | 56.6%116 W · 89 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…b702backed Shopify Rebellion | 6c | 175.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e0…6821backed Shopify Rebellion | 22c | 173.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Shopify Rebellion | 17c | 163.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Shopify Rebellion | 10c | 163.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -13.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Shopify Rebellion | 17c | 162.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…c5e1backed Shopify Rebellion | 13c | 151.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Shopify Rebellion | 18c | 141.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 416 | 51.2%213 W · 203 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed LYON | 79c | 124.41$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Shopify Rebellion | 13c | 115.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 3,131 | 33.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L | -150.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Shopify Rebellion | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 177 | 39%69 W · 108 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Shopify Rebellion | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 580 | 42.4%246 W · 334 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed LYON | 76c | 97.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 1,539 | 43.7%673 W · 866 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…f120backed Shopify Rebellion | 26c | 90.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked LYON | 79c | 80.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,092 | 52.4%572 W · 520 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Shopify Rebellion | 18c | 77.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 780 | 43.1%336 W · 444 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed LYON | 79c | 64.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 259 | 60.2%156 W · 103 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked LYON | 79c | 62.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 793 | 45.4%360 W · 433 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked LYON | 79c | 62.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5a…ff90backed LYON | 80c | 61.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Shopify Rebellion | 21c | 52.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b5…1e84backed LYON | 79c | 51.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed LYON | 79c | 36.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 581 | 55.6%323 W · 258 L | +17.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked LYON | 79c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…d88cbacked LYON | 79c | 13.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)LYON won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 WinnerLYON won
- LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 WinnerLYON won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.