Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f2938ae37e876bf474bb74d793390bf4b51c3ce2d3d5d8b351eab1c07e50c2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 2c | 1,348$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…0775backed Yes | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 384.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 6c | 310.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…26b7backed Yes | 14c | 259.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 14c | 253.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 25c | 195.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 30c | 191.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 24c | 180.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 169.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 160.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 80c | 160.22$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 138$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 10c | 119.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 110.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 107.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 26c | 98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 79c | 89.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 79c | 88.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 80c | 88.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 81.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked Yes | 16c | 66.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 63.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddb…4b77backed No | 79c | 61.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…4a6bbacked No | 72c | 58.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…ee1abacked No | 74c | 56.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 55.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 52.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 72c | 49.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…66dbbacked No | 74c | 48.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 27c | 44.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 30c | 44.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 24c | 43.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 40.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 29c | 38.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 72c | 38.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 76c | 37.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 69c | 28.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…1a52backed No | 77c | 25.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 67c | 24.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 77c | 22.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.