Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f2f7aba7dbdda357dbec97624e8cf4b2ceb4da7ff0aa624c2bc8028d209480f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 1,662$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.37 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 574$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 524.98$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 285.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 255.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 56c | 243.11$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 153.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 142.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 129.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 29c | 127$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 118$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 46c | 105$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 99.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 54c | 99.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 90.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 55c | 86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 25c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 42c | 74.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 35c | 73.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 25c | 70.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 57c | 69.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 57c | 67.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 47c | 64.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 26c | 61.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 56.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 38c | 56.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 55.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 22c | 55.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 67c | 52.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 51c | 49.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 48c | 46.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 54c | 45.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 44c | 45.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 66c | 38.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 33c | 38.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 38.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…6d5fbacked No | 55c | 36.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 70c | 35.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 45c | 35.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 40c | 33.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 45c | 33.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 61c | 28.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 74c | 26.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 45c | 25.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 50c | 24.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 23.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…c578backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 77c | 17.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.