Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaca9ba0e0b1e684f19e94cf10e26f63e96ee8086a1d82f7aa5371f4dfc4b8da3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 58c | 1,058$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.43 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 44c | 557.59$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.34 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 525$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 42c | 350$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 41c | 345.83$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.63 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 10c | 293.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 280.71$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 60c | 243.23$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 240.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 65c | 228.92$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 183.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 177.87$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 160.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 153.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 42c | 136.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 128$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 120.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 120.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 39c | 112.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 110.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 36c | 105.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 58c | 92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 86.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 42c | 85.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 60c | 82.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 37c | 79.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 64c | 78.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 39c | 73.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 37c | 64.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 61.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 73c | 59.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 31c | 58.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 37c | 58.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 65c | 55.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 45c | 54.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 47.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 38c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed No | 67c | 37.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 36.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 33.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 72c | 33.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 65c | 32.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 66c | 32.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 30.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 39c | 27.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 26.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 71c | 26.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 41c | 26.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 66c | 22.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 65c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 59c | 20.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 18.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 13.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.