MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f2fcfd582fd01784b83026b7005e6ea7a2f7c94ae0632b57ecd25fff3f460a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 1,825$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 24c | 1,685$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 641.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.03 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 438.73$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.62 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 405.76$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.49 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 359.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c2…e9bfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 350$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 315.52$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.62 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 210.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 119.72$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 115.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 79.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed St. Louis Cardinals | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 54.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 205 | 51.7%106 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 40.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 40.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 29.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…9aa6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.