MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d24495455cbd7246e5a4651f298768ccf9a699ccdf67669288eab3b5ecdf37e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 22,085$11,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,759.26 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Over | 51c | 19,505$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,505.03 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 68c | 12,105$8,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,838.11 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 10,679$4,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,968 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 4,007$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,258.6 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 49c | 1,313$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.25 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.2 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 45c | 1,017$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.55 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Under | 3c | 875$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 3c | 875$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 45c | 860$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Under | 2c | 786.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 55c | 547.46$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.11 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 501.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.87 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5886…fe3bbacked Under | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 5cpaid | +609.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 947 | 34.4%326 W · 621 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 42c | 398.07$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.38 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 45c | 374$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.86 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 313.68$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 55c | 299.4$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.73 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 79c | 296.1$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.92 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 74c | 241.77$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 51c | 197$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.53 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 44c | 163.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 46c | 155.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 47c | 104$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…709bbacked Under | 50c | 95.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Under | 15c | 91.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 52c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 53c | 77.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 21c | 62.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 26c | 56.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 58c | 55.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3a…7fdcbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Under | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 38c | 43.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 52c | 42.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 55c | 37.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 57c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Over | 51c | 34.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb97…7ae1backed Under | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 85 | 34.1%29 W · 56 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 50c | 29.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 46c | 29.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 47c | 25.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…7483backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b5…ef23backed Over | 54c | 23.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 52c | 22.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.