NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f300cffec8e44e50678976552dded198cb9465ddb3b1ff6306cf2d67235e033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Sabres, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,164 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sabres | 44c | 3,874$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,163.02 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sharks | 56c | 3,353$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.68 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Sabres | 44c | 2,018$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.16 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Sharks | 57c | 1,901$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.58 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Sabres | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sharks | 56c | 1,361$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.7 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Sharks | 57c | 293.42$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.25 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Sabres | 45c | 222.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.45 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Sharks | 58c | 172.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Sharks | 56c | 166$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sharks | 56c | 144.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Sharks | 56c | 134$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sabres | 45c | 127.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Sharks | 55c | 123.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Sharks | 56c | 119.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Sabres | 44c | 113.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Sharks | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Sabres | 44c | 92.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Sabres | 44c | 81.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Sharks | 56c | 79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64d…5774backed Sharks | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…d6c1backed Sabres | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Sharks | 57c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8218…155bbacked Sabres | 45c | 44.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sharks | 56c | 42.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Sabres | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Sabres | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Sharks | 58c | 32.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Sabres | 44c | 25.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Sharks | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Sharks | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…c7d4backed Sharks | 56c | 17.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Sharks vs. SabresSabres won
- Sharks vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.