NHL · resolved market
Sharks vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8bae94281bc49980a213659d27bd9bd61acc340beacd2629872715a20fb56ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,530 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 35c | 1,080$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.1 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 64c | 882$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.06 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 65c | 876.98$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.07 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 32c | 861.98$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.89 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 36c | 841.59$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.89 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e49…fb01backed Over | 66c | 603.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 71c | 354.71$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 33c | 173.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Over | 65c | 153.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 554 | 46.4%257 W · 297 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Over | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 66c | 121.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 64c | 107.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 35c | 69.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 36c | 66.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Over | 64c | 64.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 30c | 54.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 75c | 34.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Over | 65c | 22.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…e75bbacked Over | 65c | 17.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sharks vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5this page
- Sharks vs. SabresSabres won
- Sharks vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.