Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Potapova (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f3d29d1ce8da75e14b33df27b222fd18aa91cb6b6631174ad3369daeda7197d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Pegula, Potapova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f3c…2f57backed Potapova | 62c | 5,100$3,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,156.02 | 307 | 40.7%125 W · 182 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pegula | 38c | 2,962$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836.48 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Pegula | 38c | 1,175$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.5 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Pegula | 41c | 399.99$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.45 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pegula | 38c | 279.05$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.01 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Pegula | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Potapova | 55c | 184.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Pegula | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Potapova | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 59.6%159 W · 108 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855f…4954backed Potapova | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 105 | 70.5%74 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Pegula | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe321…b456backed Potapova | 61c | 63.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…dd07backed Potapova | 59c | 51.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…c407backed Pegula | 43c | 46.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…c2d0backed Potapova | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 124 | 62.1%77 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Pegula | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5761…b74cbacked Pegula | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Pegula | 41c | 26.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Potapova | 59c | 24.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Potapova (+1.5)this page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Anastasia PotapovaJessica Pegula won
- Pegula vs. Potapova: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Pegula vs. Potapova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs PotapovaPegula won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.