Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f709ece6ccb52173826a9bda91bb7930e0f9d93015a590f5ac60a77d48c98a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 2c | 3,732$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,639$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 2c | 1,475$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 4c | 1,466$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 6c | 779.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 686.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…7872backed Yes | 4c | 586.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc1…7bb8backed Yes | 6c | 287.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 190.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 170.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 126.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 107.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 17c | 98.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 21c | 81.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ee…f90fbacked No | 77c | 77.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 78c | 44.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 40.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 33.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 74c | 32.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 29.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 27.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b1…542ebacked No | 76c | 26.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 25.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 22.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 72c | 22.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 71c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ba…16dcbacked No | 74c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 75cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 14.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.