Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7429f73b7346a0a69b1dc509bd52bb7e7821fbcb159243b8a69c51c1ea7d762d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x737c…cdf2backed Yes | 2c | 1,721$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…548abacked Yes | 20c | 234.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 163.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 22c | 145.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 139.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 16c | 127.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 27c | 124.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 108.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 25c | 97.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…74b9backed No | 77c | 97.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd3…98efbacked Yes | 23c | 81.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 32c | 69.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 16c | 69.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 58.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 26c | 50.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked No | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…aa0bbacked Yes | 27c | 47.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 25c | 46.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 45.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed Yes | 31c | 35.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 24.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 23.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 20.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.