MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f7dae17481c224c0311d61f80fdd4841c5afd3ed12ca80c1bf7ece4ca12c560
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 56c | 16,537$9,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,253.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Yes | 44c | 15,462$6,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,646.75 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…766dbacked No | 55c | 1,206$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.45 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 44c | 1,026$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.74 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 45c | 986$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 44c | 621.59$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 44c | 398$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.05 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 46c | 110.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 56c | 103$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed No | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…0650backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jaysthis page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.