MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x112fcfa148e379cdab944cd2f23e89adf4e8888d943cc440dae621798437f71d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 50c | 12,091$6,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,045.49 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…d9a3backed Under | 50c | 6,173$3,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,070.91 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 50c | 6,022$3,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,011 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 50c | 4,000$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Under | 51c | 3,029$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.59 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…61e5backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 1,484$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 60c | 1,352$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.42 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 49c | 1,261$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.35 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 30c | 1,200$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.75 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 50c | 620.98$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.49 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…bb7bbacked Over | 50c | 411.94$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.97 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 49c | 390$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.9 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 49c | 349.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.49 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 233$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 195.24$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 189.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.92 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Over | 50c | 160.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Over | 50c | 119.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 50c | 117.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 117.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 77c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 78c | 62.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Under | 51c | 61.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 61.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 59.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…7b20backed Over | 49c | 39.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 56c | 27.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Over | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…1ca9backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf110…9095backed Over | 49c | 24.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 51c | 20.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…ac42backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…3bb8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…e580backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.