Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fb9aedf8a799c13dfd924f9aca8acd000c2ed088e5cd7ba814986a804a7bec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Under | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,499.98 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Over | 55c | 6,023$3,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,695.54 | 338 | 38.2%129 W · 209 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Under | 45c | 4,500$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.99 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Over | 55c | 3,400$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed Over | 55c | 2,947$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.27 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Over | 55c | 2,607$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.38 | 1,308 | 38.6%505 W · 803 L | -64.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5e…1468backed Over | 55c | 1,040$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.22 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Over | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed Over | 55c | 567.27$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.27 | 282 | 35.1%99 W · 183 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Under | 44c | 500.1$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.04 | 246 | 43.1%106 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea6…180dbacked Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1,156 | 45.1%521 W · 635 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Over | 55c | 474.88$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.87 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 45c | 303.12$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.49 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bc…e09bbacked Over | 55c | 249.58$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Over | 55c | 225$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Over | 57c | 200.04$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 248 | 32.3%80 W · 168 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…a9cfbacked Under | 45c | 146.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb909…d559backed Over | 57c | 126$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…e8bcbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 46c | 58.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 343 | 57.1%196 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1,606 | 17.5%281 W · 1,325 L | -245.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 417 | 49.2%205 W · 212 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…e129backed Over | 54c | 36.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 245 | 35.9%88 W · 157 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Under | 42c | 27.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 45.8%114 W · 135 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 348 | 49.1%171 W · 177 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?this page
- Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5)Top Esports won
- Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5)Top Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsTop Esports won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 WinnerTop Esports won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 WinnerTop Esports won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 WinnerTop Esports won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.