Europa Conference League · resolved market
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fbfc939c496eaaf64ff8731063a62ae7ed5a60650670be93d2d0b69a2a56a90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 4,192$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,104.74 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 53c | 3,234$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.82 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…98b3backed Over | 60c | 2,785$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 62c | 2,411$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 39c | 1,150$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.5 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 31c | 999.61$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.35 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…dec4backed Over | 60c | 805$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 61c | 725.43$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.51 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 39c | 527.12$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.07 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 38c | 499.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 103 | 32%33 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 40c | 486.05$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.63 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc15d…6a7cbacked Under | 56c | 479.04$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 39c | 444$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.84 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 61c | 411.29$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2d…3ec7backed Over | 62c | 322.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb03…00fcbacked Over | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…8b87backed Over | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 60c | 279$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 39c | 271.61$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.61 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Under | 66c | 202.78$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…f1dabacked Over | 60c | 131.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…dc0abacked Over | 60c | 123.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…8f71backed Over | 60c | 103.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x593f…61c6backed Over | 60c | 103.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4743…9a63backed Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ab…d141backed Over | 60c | 98.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…9db0backed Over | 60c | 96.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa798…492ebacked Over | 60c | 96.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 63c | 94.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 61c | 92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 41c | 83.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…07f2backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…45b7backed Under | 78c | 58.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Under | 39c | 45.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…1289backed Under | 45c | 41.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed Over | 60c | 34.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb2…e990backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 45c | 30.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7db…d69cbacked Under | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Under | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…6b19backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Over | 62c | 20.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 61c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5this page
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.