Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fbfcce0d194a94f253c1d9263c586ae4718d6aa4633a8499d66cf7a93576e82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 10c | 2,803$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.91 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 6c | 1,292$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 11c | 825.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…3942backed Yes | 18c | 811.08$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.29 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 716.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes | 18c | 605.1$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 596.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 4c | 570.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 6c | 486.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 4c | 445.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 437.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 9c | 324.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 11c | 319.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 11c | 300.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 16c | 280.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 264.23$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 6c | 243.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 242.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 240.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 22c | 240$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…95eebacked No | 80c | 201.52$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes | 15c | 200.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b8…50b5backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 16c | 197.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 6c | 171.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 7c | 166.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 22c | 156.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 144.93$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 143.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa6…7ee4backed Yes | 12c | 134.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Yes | 30c | 126.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 10c | 119.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 73c | 113.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 25c | 110.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 18c | 108.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 30c | 100.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…b153backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 80c | 98.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 87.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 26c | 80.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 78.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 27c | 75.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb9…1f8fbacked Yes | 29c | 54.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…959ebacked Yes | 24c | 49.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 27c | 49.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e2…358ebacked Yes | 25c | 43.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 37.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…c929backed No | 78c | 33.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…21c4backed No | 78c | 28.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…983fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 71c | 21.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae9…0bddbacked No | 75c | 21.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b9…4799backed No | 79c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 76c | 19.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7632…f1bfbacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 78c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or higher on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.