TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,302
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,612

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,302 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No74c4,628$3,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.19540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes4c2,451$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.581,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes13c2,287$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.0311227.7%31 W · 81 L+12.3wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+175.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes18c1,200$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21024010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes36c1,179$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.7266543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes3c1,079$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes23c1,075$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.247834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes18c921.51$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16648331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes14c725.04$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.29429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes15c665.38$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7326339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed No71c640.59$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.035451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab60…ac53backed Yes28c621.8$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.39650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+236.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes42c617.44$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.4895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c543.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes11c524.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.731,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes15c500.37$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes19c475.18$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.051729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes15c468.81$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7996313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes21c446.72$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1134319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8789…9c0ebacked Yes2c445.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.111127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1816…06e9backed Yes45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.28per pick18cpaid+142.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes44c387.6$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.9833058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes17c386.54$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.861,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No47c378.04$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.7559742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xc2bf…5892backed Yes13c368.58$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.097233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed No70c348.57$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5718727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes10c340.75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.674850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ac…5315backed No78c338.75$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.561136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked No78c336.15$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.554833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0218…f9babacked Yes28c311$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.98616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes25c308.75$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes13c305.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7838840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes11c287.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.192,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes22c254.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0454037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes20c253.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5690040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes7c250.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.861,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked No63c250.51$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.242050%10 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7479…8bc2backed Yes14c228.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.262030%6 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-56.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeeaa…bea6backed No59c224.97$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.62540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick69cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes11c219.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.716036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes16c218.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.871,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes26c208.21$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes30c207.92$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7925362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes17c204.88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5711359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes26c204.73$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.218835.2%31 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes16c203.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5871823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes8c199.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes35c196.83$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1516465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed Yes22c193.27$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.335839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69d2…2f75backed Yes17c182.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.493243.8%14 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes24c176.87$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4216924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes16c174.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.318,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes26c156.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.185330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa444…0898backed No60c155.76$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes25c150.53$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.221,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb9…f325backed No70c140.63$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.921915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes29c137.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7624442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes17c135.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.123,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes8c135.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a15…32dcbacked Yes50c121.62$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.25922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes28c119.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8910043%43 W · 57 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes22c116.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0116651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfda…daefbacked Yes73c111.93$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No31c110.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1718316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes12c107.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5255919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes26c107.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3522236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5f8…8e32backed No59c107.23$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9717956.4%101 W · 78 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes30c105.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.371,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eee…bac2backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206045%27 W · 33 L-6.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a0d…dc8fbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes11c99.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1136123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6405…7d19backed No31c99.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.798438.1%32 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes42c97.75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed No56c94.89$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2929642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes22c90$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.88943.8%39 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes25c89.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0110531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c88.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes16c80$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes13c79.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5929469.7%205 W · 89 L+26.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c00…1c78backed Yes15c76.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5315330.7%47 W · 106 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes34c72.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab78…fac0backed Yes21c71.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15267.7%2 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes65c70$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.55848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes34c67.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46ed…eec2backed No76c65.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes29c63.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3127079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes51c63.43$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3298160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes49c62.62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8143021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes25c60.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0467…846fbacked Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes18c56.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.442,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x632f…14aabacked No75c56.21$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.211675%12 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.