TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,678
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,678 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab0f…ee84backed No2c3,203$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.052759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x610c…998fbacked No1c2,177$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.862733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x100a…c6cebacked No1c2,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f62…b774backed No1c1,828$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes61c1,372$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.7166543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No18c1,050$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.9859742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes63c583$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.621,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes64c500.23$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.952339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes65c441.63$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.8447834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No29c410.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.717243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes59c376.69$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.6431649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes40c313.37$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.029429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes75c309.77$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3333058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No12c307.39$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2634618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No48c299.99$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1431,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes67c299.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.211646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes64c292.29$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1816…06e9backed Yes58c289.98$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.79728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cc0…b5f2backed No40c276.89$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6413360.9%81 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes59c270.99$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.7533139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No41c258.32$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.863,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes44c246.35$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.7828718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes59c233.73$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1116036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1824…571abacked No39c211.24$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6460%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c196.44$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.1217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes56c192.83$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.331,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes62c190.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.774833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No25c172.9$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5471823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No21c169.7$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.042,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fa6…7ee4backed No32c166.14$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9706…2e00backed Yes32c156.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+101.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes34c154.18$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.671,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c01…9d5ebacked No66c152.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes61c149.98$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.215848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a96…b81abacked No48c148.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.416949.3%34 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes56c129.57$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.544,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked No44c123.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.892050%10 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b22…8945backed No43c117.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025341.5%105 W · 148 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes56c113.4$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.411436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes49c112.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.623333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1669…4641backed Yes66c112.67$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.67250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ac…5315backed No37c104.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.421136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c24…b10ebacked No29c102.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302010%2 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-69.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c102.77$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb088…ee40backed No37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37200%0 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2632444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.131,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42fd…96c0backed Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372060%12 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes38c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.523633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6405…7d19backed No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.28438.1%32 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed Yes57c99.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed Yes38c99.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.994037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf45…551fbacked No34c99.63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342114.3%3 W · 18 L-5.1wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-71.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes42c94$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6738840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes51c90.12$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3110650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No28c89.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2529056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes66c85.95$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No51c83.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6492028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes27c81.17$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.173435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes61c75$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.524216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No37c74.61$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7754037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes79c74.2$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.551,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8116…b2a8backed Yes69c73.58$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8112152.1%63 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No37c71.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.68,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf864…496fbacked No38c71.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.089643.8%42 W · 54 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa1…3881backed Yes40c70.67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4517.8%4 W · 47 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c1e…ca35backed No38c70.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-32.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3e4d…c47dbacked Yes62c67.76$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cde…1af7backed No59c66.63$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4820146.3%93 W · 108 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x534d…047abacked Yes65c64.2$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.72560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No39c61.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.061,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked No43c60.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2143021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No56c60.66$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.887,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes56c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6365934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes68c59.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.41,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes62c59.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c14…35b8backed No50c59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.594955.1%27 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed No28c58.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1955919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No38c54.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8251762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5817…94f0backed No40c50.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaed7…a541backed Yes39c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe062…ab15backed No37c49.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.693636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0a…fcd0backed No51c49.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed Yes68c48.89$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.795839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bdf…98a3backed No45c48.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228549.4%42 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4de1…18a2backed Yes41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7843515.2%66 W · 369 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x197e…93febacked No40c47.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x632f…14aabacked Yes75c45.32$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.121675%12 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No39c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6231868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4826…79dabacked Yes68c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.21464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36fa…1125backed Yes68c44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.081656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes37c44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.91,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9243…ee8cbacked Yes50c43.97$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5548…4e54backed Yes67c43.94$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0943…ca76backed Yes60c42.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.11952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc3…7d41backed No59c41.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.787323.3%17 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1222…75bbbacked Yes63c41.4$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.