Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fc293dd36340f27a392c17221a0b55b5aa98d683a7cb221bf90667c9ceafcf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 76c | 1,519$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.44 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 42c | 734.32$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.27 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 62c | 573.32$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.32 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 23c | 432$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 71c | 382.81$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…9ae2backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e70…740dbacked No | 51c | 261.42$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…0579backed No | 51c | 259.96$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…e3e1backed No | 50c | 259.47$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbba1…1b12backed No | 50c | 257.46$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3227…6df7backed No | 51c | 257.43$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a71…01d3backed No | 51c | 255.3$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad0…d55cbacked No | 51c | 251.81$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e94…21b8backed No | 51c | 251.13$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5d…0fbfbacked No | 50c | 250.74$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…fda5backed No | 51c | 248.75$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.89 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…57babacked No | 50c | 245.89$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…2838backed No | 51c | 243.86$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f8…d24fbacked No | 51c | 240.84$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd7…834dbacked No | 50c | 239.7$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…43b6backed No | 51c | 235.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 11c | 210$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 29c | 186.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 60c | 155$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…2955backed Yes | 41c | 61.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f5…56c0backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked Yes | 31c | 48.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 37c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 39.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 56c | 25.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of April?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $310 end of April?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $320 end of April?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $330 end of April?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $340 end of April?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $350 end of April?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 end of April?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 end of April?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of April?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of April?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.