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Stocks · resolved market

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of April?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,492 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf350…f3ffbacked No66c4,696$3,104 inWon+$1,592.8335151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked No55c4,400$2,412 inWon+$1,988.411,33747.2%631 W · 706 L+44.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes49c3,251$1,595 inLost-$1,595.3381240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes35c2,703$935 inLost-$934.618853.2%100 W · 88 L+18.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes34c2,331$801 inLost-$800.831,81648.9%888 W · 928 L+142.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked No50c615.34$310 inWon+$305.166361.9%39 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked No68c508.06$345 inWon+$162.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed97…5d0dbacked Yes35c360.89$125 inLost-$125.191450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c355.64$113 inLost-$112.7251927.6%143 W · 376 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes22c301.41$66 inLost-$66.49520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf95b…7403backed Yes26c270$70 inLost-$70.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52c7…1c61backed Yes56c262.74$147 inLost-$146.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e1…6579backed Yes31c129.04$39 inLost-$39.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes55c127$70 inLost-$69.851866.7%12 W · 6 L+5.4wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+137.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes30c124.25$37 inLost-$37.141,4458.8%127 W · 1,318 L-53.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes19c110$21 inLost-$21.223245.3%105 W · 127 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2f5…56c0backed Yes55c100$55 inLost-$5520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No73c100$73 inWon+$273450%17 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No73c100$73 inWon+$2713815.9%22 W · 116 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes30c77.82$23 inLost-$23.433737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes40c73.33$29 inLost-$29.4215835.4%56 W · 102 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No42c71.13$30 inWon+$41.073215.6%5 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-68.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes33c67.28$22 inLost-$22.127844.9%35 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes23c55$13 inLost-$12.6510036%36 W · 64 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b56…9100backed Yes66c53.58$35 inLost-$35.22520%1 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick68cpaid-69.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff18…9382backed No62c51.09$32 inWon+$19.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes24c51$12 inLost-$12.2419934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes38c50$19 inLost-$198645.3%39 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No62c50$31 inWon+$1910049%49 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No44c44.44$20 inWon+$24.685844.8%26 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ef…0cf9backed No67c40$27 inWon+$13.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0093…be88backed Yes51c39.22$20 inLost-$20875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed No59c39$23 inWon+$15.8610543.8%46 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes41c39$16 inLost-$15.8611346.9%53 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+11.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No43c36.77$16 inWon+$20.87757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4809…f6dfbacked No71c35.46$25 inWon+$10.184100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0ce…d575backed Yes57c22.3$13 inLost-$12.73450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No69c22$15 inWon+$6.910879.6%86 W · 22 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e75…305ebacked No60c20$12 inWon+$82100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5b0…38c4backed No56c18.24$10 inWon+$8.021675%12 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.