MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9febaf4d1c9e7d80925f5803d78bea63ae9263a3b4de7f2edbd0f02c752776e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 55c | 22,531$12,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,152.89 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 9,002$4,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,052.16 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 7,761$3,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,491.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 60c | 4,307$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 2,992$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971.76 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 1,055$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.75 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 996.34$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.55 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 45c | 681.98$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.89 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 47c | 610$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.6 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 454.3$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.02 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd304…3ed2backed Over | 55c | 436.36$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 79c | 235.76$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 154.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 154.32$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 52c | 139.29$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 47c | 132.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 47c | 122.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Under | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 48c | 105.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 47c | 101.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 29c | 82.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 49c | 60.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Under | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 56.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 47c | 50.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Under | 48c | 40.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 38.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 37.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8048…5c85backed Under | 53c | 25.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.