MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21e8bd3302179dfd6acb28d2c119edf19684099efbdf5c39121854f47b9f0cb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Athletics, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Athletics | 55c | 15,029$8,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,337.04 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 45c | 12,879$5,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,133.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 6,409$3,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,069.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Athletics | 44c | 4,555$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 42c | 2,208$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 1,640$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.01 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked Athletics | 43c | 930.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics | 42c | 851.72$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.82 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 787.87$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.66 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 77c | 571.18$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.85 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Athletics | 45c | 469$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.8 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 449.52$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.29 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 444$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 441.32$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.77 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 429.84$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.19 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Athletics | 41c | 420$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 350$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…3c53backed Athletics | 10c | 201.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Athletics | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Athletics | 6c | 189.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Athletics | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Athletics | 7c | 171.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 71c | 156$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Angels | 77c | 110.04$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 100.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Athletics | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Athletics | 41c | 91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Athletics | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Athletics | 21c | 51.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 44.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Athletics | 45c | 32.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 32.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Athletics | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…bc30backed Athletics | 44c | 24.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad6…eed6backed Athletics | 44c | 24.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 78c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.