Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ff4566022fa413c65261580e0deb4167dd1656b194757b8a6cb8ac2ea71e805
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 21c | 244.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 48c | 223$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.54 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 13c | 150.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 66c | 139.47$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 75c | 136.31$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 35c | 132.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 118.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e309backed Yes | 34c | 111.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 18c | 102.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 99.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 67c | 95.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 90.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 88.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 77.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 59c | 72.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 71.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 69.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 68c | 67.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 38c | 66.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed No | 76c | 66.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 55.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 65c | 53.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 37c | 51.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 50.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 40c | 50.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 57c | 47.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 51c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 49c | 40.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 50c | 39.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 63c | 38.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 44c | 36.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 35c | 35.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 38c | 30.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 28.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…4bcdbacked Yes | 50c | 27.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 27.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd332…f85dbacked No | 69c | 26.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 46c | 24.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 49c | 23.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 57c | 23.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 46c | 21.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 73c | 19.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…ab35backed No | 58c | 18.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.