Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3c38d850fa84d5f66959f465a3879b276338783552ba49dcf354d92096f29ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 296$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.97 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 231.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 223.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 17c | 186.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 61c | 173.59$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.19 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 51c | 153.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e57…ddc3backed Yes | 72c | 138.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 135.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 58c | 127.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 14c | 109.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 60c | 106.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 18c | 102.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 49c | 99.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 19c | 96.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 37c | 96.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 88.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 60c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 78.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…feffbacked No | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 65.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 69c | 65.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 62c | 63.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 64c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 27c | 56.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 56.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 28c | 50.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 35c | 50.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 49.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 52c | 48.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 23c | 47.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 58c | 44.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 68c | 44.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 72c | 41.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 51c | 41.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 45c | 40.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 44c | 36.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 39c | 36.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 62c | 35.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 45c | 31.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 68c | 30.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 58c | 28.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 70c | 26.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…7e00backed No | 59c | 26.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 50c | 26.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 60c | 25.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 62c | 25.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 58c | 24.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 71c | 23.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 67c | 22.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 56c | 20.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…e8c6backed Yes | 60c | 19.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…4af7backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 66c | 17.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 80c | 15.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.