Champions League · resolved market
Chelsea FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0003f2d651321f1704c3274d1aee21dd4514882ee900c1655ccafa26f8fcf34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 5,981$3,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152.34 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed Under | 56c | 1,749$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.36 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 1,247$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.47 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 47c | 725$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.25 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Over | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 197 | 55.3%109 W · 88 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 43c | 524.28$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.84 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -9.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Under | 57c | 505.28$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 54c | 494.41$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.41 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Over | 50c | 352.27$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Over | 45c | 332.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.61 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 51c | 269.63$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 38c | 269.63$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Under | 43c | 232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…a925backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 56c | 131.34$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 55c | 118.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…a51cbacked Over | 45c | 97.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked Under | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 44c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 206 | 67.5%139 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 52c | 53.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5416…3300backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…1c75backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Over | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…4f6ebacked Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…4b52backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf13…a49cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef8…935bbacked Over | 65c | 19.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.