Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1a8144f86c85962357f701e4b98245fb7296233c5fce9c9178ddc8211e2b1d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chelsea FCof Chelsea FC, AFC Ajax
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AFC Ajax | 0c | 5,542$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AFC Ajax | 72c | 2,528$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,817.18 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked AFC Ajax | 67c | 1,502$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.21 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked AFC Ajax | 72c | 1,435$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.23 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Chelsea FC | 30c | 1,304$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.05 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Chelsea FC | 32c | 1,231$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.02 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Chelsea FC | 28c | 994.74$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Chelsea FC | 26c | 800.16$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.92 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked AFC Ajax | 71c | 604.9$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.71 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Chelsea FC | 30c | 599.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.99 | 197 | 55.3%109 W · 88 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…c2c4backed AFC Ajax | 46c | 544.39$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed AFC Ajax | 67c | 508.82$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.39 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked AFC Ajax | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Chelsea FC | 27c | 419.12$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.03 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Chelsea FC | 31c | 400$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Chelsea FC | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe852…3fe6backed Chelsea FC | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Chelsea FC | 29c | 210$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Chelsea FC | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Chelsea FC | 54c | 147.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…c52cbacked Chelsea FC | 35c | 143.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Chelsea FC | 27c | 125.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Chelsea FC | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Chelsea FC | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…8af9backed AFC Ajax | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Chelsea FC | 26c | 75.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Chelsea FC | 31c | 69.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Chelsea FC | 34c | 53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Chelsea FC | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Chelsea FC | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…7e70backed Chelsea FC | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed AFC Ajax | 70c | 37.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Chelsea FC | 74c | 28.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…f7b4backed AFC Ajax | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdac…e46bbacked AFC Ajax | 67c | 17.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)this page
- Chelsea FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.