Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa01017494695cf4481fe8dff5dab81ada31c6090685fd07a668316d4681ea0c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 15c | 344.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.11 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 5c | 330.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 66c | 286.26$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.19 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 15c | 270.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 211.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.59 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 16c | 188.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 78c | 176.87$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.53 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 161.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.14 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 140.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…acf0backed No | 15c | 139.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 23c | 136.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 17c | 134.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.59 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 132.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked No | 21c | 119.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 106.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked Yes | 70c | 96.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 89.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 69c | 84.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 80.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…47dbbacked Yes | 19c | 77.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed Yes | 31c | 77.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 73.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…0091backed No | 75c | 62.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 74c | 62.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…2e9ebacked Yes | 18c | 57.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 50c | 57.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 78c | 56.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 72c | 55.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 55.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 54.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 80c | 43.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 43.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 26c | 41.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 46c | 31.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 54c | 30.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed No | 75c | 29.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 27.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Yes | 43c | 27.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 78c | 16.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 77c | 13.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 13.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.