Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa02037b0cb526aaeb4d89775be1ced86c3ae09941c038ef6ec1a8c651350e8ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 986.01$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.64 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 29c | 957.4$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.65 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 3c | 489.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…55a6backed Yes | 26c | 147.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 125.67$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 24c | 115.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 20c | 95.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 80c | 89.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 73c | 80.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 72.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 26c | 64.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 59.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ba18backed Yes | 27c | 53.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 22.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 77c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-04-17?No won
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-04-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.