Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-04-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35e4558027c8735419fbe2886f5b944c690c9a277a02b0b674adccb6f069aa84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed No | 58c | 19,164$11,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,073.44 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 67c | 3,798$2,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.91 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked No | 1c | 2,999$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 41c | 2,142$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.16 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 45c | 1,901$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.07 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 39c | 1,830$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.3 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 4c | 1,281$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Yes | 42c | 1,247$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.28 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,161$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.08 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 70c | 982$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.6 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Yes | 42c | 965.2$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.82 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 41c | 884.12$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.51 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Yes | 42c | 714.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 2c | 712.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 43c | 600$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 42c | 588.72$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.87 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 70c | 587.64$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.18 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 42c | 564.08$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.35 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 43c | 553.49$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.49 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 42c | 530.31$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.58 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 58c | 409.13$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.29 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked No | 37c | 399.98$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 57c | 380.26$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.39 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 42c | 344.71$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.93 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 4c | 317.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 42c | 297$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.26 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 42c | 297$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.26 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 42c | 297$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.26 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 42c | 276.7$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.72 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 42c | 197.71$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.67 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 42c | 195.8$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.56 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 69c | 139.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 42c | 130.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 42c | 114.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…aaf4backed Yes | 42c | 109.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…d727backed Yes | 42c | 105.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 63c | 97.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Yes | 42c | 91.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 43c | 88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 31c | 82.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed No | 56c | 79.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Yes | 64c | 76.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 42c | 73.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 41c | 69.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 45c | 67.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb4…db25backed Yes | 44c | 65.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 53c | 59.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 42c | 57.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 56c | 48.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a01…c0f7backed Yes | 43c | 46.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 38c | 44.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 66c | 43.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…1e75backed Yes | 42c | 42.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Yes | 42c | 42.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Yes | 43c | 40.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Yes | 42c | 39.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Yes | 43c | 38.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Yes | 42c | 38.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 44c | 34.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Yes | 42c | 34.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a1…0cd3backed Yes | 42c | 34.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 59c | 30.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96b1…812bbacked Yes | 42c | 30.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81c9…4a47backed No | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3063…e5e1backed No | 56c | 20.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-04-17?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-04-17?No won
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.