Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-04-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3948e659f3160e9de903dab559f014fade4f3a9eb46d92016e29fcce10228f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 6c | 7,070$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.6 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…4f80backed Yes | 30c | 6,660$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,027.83 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 6,223$4,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.37 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 69c | 3,200$2,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.98 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 12c | 3,068$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.2 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 71c | 1,528$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.69 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 33c | 1,454$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.9 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5392…d2ecbacked Yes | 31c | 1,082$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 12c | 923.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.82 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 32c | 820.76$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.58 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 31c | 580.12$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.16 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 68c | 566.17$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.61 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 30c | 430.08$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.05 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 69c | 398.06$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.38 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 16c | 303.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 68c | 268.57$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Yes | 31c | 233.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked No | 70c | 224.11$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +78%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 24c | 196.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Yes | 33c | 186.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 27c | 132.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 69c | 119.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 69c | 99.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 31c | 95.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 95.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…348ebacked Yes | 30c | 80.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 31c | 72.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 68c | 70.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605f…425abacked Yes | 31c | 61.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…4db7backed No | 72c | 57.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 32c | 56.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 32c | 56.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 23c | 56.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 68c | 56.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44cb…feb2backed Yes | 32c | 53.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 77c | 52.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 29c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 32c | 38.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 78c | 37.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 70c | 36.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 72c | 36.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 71c | 34.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…2193backed No | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…9f64backed No | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 71c | 25.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc133…35a9backed No | 69c | 25.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 71c | 24.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 71c | 23.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed No | 68c | 20.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 71c | 16.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-04-17?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?No won
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-04-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.